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The commercial dollar closed up 0.79% at R$5.4871 on November 3, while the Ibovespa fell 1.42% to 165,528 points, its sixth consecutive loss. The first Focus market survey after the presidential runoff raised the 2027 inflation forecast to 4.76%, above the 4.5% target ceiling, and lifted the year-end 2026 Selic forecast to 12.50%.
Markets are awaiting the Copom monetary policy decision.
Higher inflation and rate expectations and a weaker real raise the cost of Brazilian feed and input imports, and tighten credit for livestock and feed producers. A weaker real can also make Brazilian grain and meal exports more competitive in global markets.
economia.uol.com.brVitor AzevedoNov 3, 2026After 301 past bullish macro events, USDBRL moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
