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On November 3, Trump said a new trade agreement with Canada was close and suggested Canadian fertilizer would enter the US without tariffs. Canada and the US have not signed a new deal, and much Canadian potash already enters the US without the newest tariffs.
If realized, tariff-free Canadian potash would ease costs for US farmers and reduce the premium on potash, but the lack of a signed agreement limits the immediate price impact.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.