
ULSD futures on the CME plunged 25.45 cents per gallon in one session on loose social media talk of US-Iran peace discussions, then rebounded 10 to 11 cents the next day after Iranian officials said no deal was closer. The weekly DOE benchmark fell modestly to $6.292 per gallon.
Roughly 10 million barrels per day of refining capacity is offline and distillate inventories are very low heading into heating-oil season, so diesel prices remain structurally tight and prone to spikes, which raises freight and feed-processing costs.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.