StoneX estimates Brazil's 2026/27 soybean crop at a record 184.95 million tonnes, up 0.9% from its prior estimate, with better yield prospects in Mato Grosso. It also raised its cotton and corn outlooks for Mato Grosso on favourable early-season weather, while warning of El Niño risks.
A larger expected Brazilian soybean crop adds to global export supply and is bearish for soybeans and soybean meal, while the higher corn outlook adds to feed grain availability.
After 787 past bearish report events, SOY moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, SBM moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 1,100 past bearish report events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.