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Trump said the US is near a trade deal with Canada under which Canada would supply fertilizer to the US without tariffs. Neither government has published final terms or a timeline, and Canadian producers already supply about 73% of US potash consumption.
Removing tariffs could lower landed potash costs for US buyers, but the concentrated supply base means Canadian producers may keep most of the savings. Any price relief for US farmers is likely to be limited.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.