
USD/CAD rebounded to around 1.3993 on Tuesday as the Canadian dollar gave up early gains amid swings in oil prices. WTI traded flat near $95 after a reported US strike on Iran's Qeshm Island and later reports of diplomatic concessions.
BoC Governor Tiff Macklem said further rate hikes may be needed.
Canada is a major crude exporter, so oil swings feed directly into CAD and the cost base for feed buyers; hawkish BoC signals point to tighter Canadian financial conditions and firmer costs for businesses.
After 102 past neutral macro events, WTI moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -3.3% to +2.5%), and +1.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.