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U.S. diesel futures barely responded to Monday's drop in global crude prices, and diesel remains more than 100% above its end-2025 level. The correlation between U.S. diesel futures and Brent has largely broken down over the past couple of months.
Attacks on refineries in the Gulf and Ukraine's drone strikes on Russian refineries have cut diesel exports to world markets.
Diesel is decoupling from crude because the bottleneck is refining capacity, not crude supply, so falling crude prices do not lower diesel costs for farm and freight users. Feed buyers should expect logistics and drying costs to stay elevated even when crude moves lower.
axios.comMatt PhillipsNov 3, 2026Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
