As of October 28, Argentina had sown 58.7% of its planned sunflower area, up from 50.3% a week earlier and 7.5 points above the five-year average, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. Sowing is 15-20% behind average in southern regions due to excess moisture, and cold temperatures are slowing crop development.
BAGE puts 2026/27 area at 3.1 million hectares and output near 8 million tonnes, while USDA estimates 3.5 million hectares.
A large, early-sown crop of about 8 million tonnes would expand world sunflower supply and increase competition for Ukrainian and Russian sunflower oil and meal in 2027, which is bearish for sunflower meal prices. Weather during the growing season will determine whether that supply materialises.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.