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Most economists surveyed by Valor expect Brazil's central bank to hold the Selic at 13.75% after the presidential election. Of 105 institutions surveyed, 72 forecast no change and 33 expect at least one further 25 basis point cut.
Concerns cited include rising inflation expectations, El Niño price pressures, tax reform and possible withdrawal of fuel subsidies.
Higher-for-longer rates raise financing costs for feed mills, farms and livestock integrators in Brazil. Weaker currency and sticky food inflation from El Niño could keep local feed ingredient prices firm.
valorinternational.globo.comVictor Rezende, Gabriel Caldeira, Gabriel RocaNov 3, 2026After 301 past bullish macro events, USDBRL moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
