The spot dollar closed the last session at R$5.4460 for sale, after the Brazilian market was closed for a holiday. US voters are casting ballots in midterm elections for all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats, with polls pointing to a Democratic takeover of the House.
Qatari mediators travelled to Tehran to discuss a deal with Iran, and oil prices fell more than 4% the previous day.
A stronger dollar against the real raises the cost of imported feed ingredients and fertilizers for Brazilian buyers. Lower oil prices on Iran peace hopes ease freight and energy costs, partly offsetting the currency effect.
After 301 past bullish macro events, USDBRL moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, BRENT moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.