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FranceAgriMer's rice market note cites World Bank projections that international rice prices will keep rising in 2026 and 2027 due to El Niño weather. Global rice output could fall 2% in 2026/27, the first decline in ten years.
The Thai 5% reference price is forecast at $448/t in 2026 and $500/t in 2027, up 21% from April forecasts.
A shrinking global rice supply and rising Thai benchmark prices lift feed-rice and broken-rice costs for buyers. Price pressure could intensify if major exporters impose export restrictions, as occurred in the 2023-2024 El Niño episode.
indexbox.ioNov 3, 2026After 88 past bullish report events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +2.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
