The rupee has recovered after Reserve Bank of India measures eased dollar demand in the spot market, and it is down about 5.5% so far in 2026. Forward premiums sit well above interest rate differentials, indicating investors still expect further depreciation.
The RBI letting state oil companies buy dollars directly removes an estimated $10 billion to $12 billion of monthly demand from the spot market. Persistent hedging costs signal the currency could weaken again, which would raise the cost of dollar-priced imports.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.