Arkansas harvest progressed quickly in dry weather, with soybeans 94% harvested and rice harvest finished. Extension economists said the U.S. has sold about 560 million bushels of soybeans to China so far in the 2026 marketing year, versus zero a year earlier.
Large Chinese soybean purchases support U.S. export demand and prices. Rice milling quality problems from heat and dryness are a minor local supply concern.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.