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Vietnamese 5% broken rice export offers rose about $30 per tonne in a week to match Thai grain, reaching their highest level since January 2025. Supply is thinning between harvests, and importers are stocking up ahead of an El Niño-linked dry season.
A smaller autumn-winter crop and importer restocking tighten Asian supply, supporting rice prices. El Niño risk to next season's crops adds further upward pressure.
After 179 past bullish weather events, RICE moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.