
Russia has harvested 135 million tonnes of grain so far in 2026 and expects a full-year crop of about 140 million tonnes, according to the agriculture minister. Exports have fallen because Black Sea shipments are disrupted and alternative routes cannot yet replace them, and the Grain Union head says the Northern Sea Route will not solve the problem.
Export logistics constraints keep a large Russian crop from reaching buyers, which weighs on Black Sea wheat and feed grain prices and supports demand for alternative origins.
After 137 past bearish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.0%), and +0.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 284 past neutral logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.4%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.