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The dollar closed at R$5.447 on Friday, its highest of 2026, after rising about 9.2% during the week following Lula's re-election. Economists revised Brazil's 2026 and 2027 inflation forecasts above the central bank's 4.5% ceiling, citing the currency, food pressure and El Niño.
Higher inflation expectations and a weaker real raise costs for imported feed inputs and food, and El Niño-driven food pressure adds to the upside risk.
hubnews.ioNov 2, 2026After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
