
The dollar index held near 102 ahead of Fed officials' speeches and the October jobs report. Markets price about a 75% chance of a December rate hike, and oil fell on Trump's willingness to give Iran diplomacy more time.
Expectations of Fed tightening support the dollar, which can pressure dollar-priced grain and meal, while lower oil reduces energy-linked costs.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.