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Following Lula's election victory, markets now expect the Brazilian central bank to hold the Selic at 13.75% at its Wednesday meeting instead of cutting by 25 basis points. The dollar rose 9% during the prior week, closing at R$5.44, and IPCA inflation is 4.58% over 12 months.
A sharp real depreciation and rate-hold expectations raise domestic feed costs in Brazil and tighten financing for the livestock and poultry sectors, while a weaker real supports Brazilian export competitiveness.
oglobo.globo.comThaís BarcellosNov 2, 2026After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
