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European gas prices fell about 10% on 2 November as US-Iran diplomacy progressed, with the Dutch TTF December contract dropping to around 93.5 euros per MWh. Gas had earlier exceeded 100 euros per MWh for the first time since 2022.
Easing Hormuz risk lowers the energy-cost premium for European processors and fertiliser makers. Storage remains low, so a rebound is possible if talks stall.
After 162 past geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.2% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -2.0% to +7.5%), and +4.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.