
The rupiah weakened on November 2 after Indonesia reported a September trade surplus of $3.36 billion, well above the $1.9 billion forecast, with export growth of 11.87%. October inflation eased to 3.23%, slightly below expectations.
USD/IDR traded near 18,180 as dollar demand was supported by high odds of a Fed hike.
Currency weakness raises the import cost of feed ingredients priced in dollars for Indonesian buyers. Strong export growth and a trade surplus support the economy, but the rupiah's direction still points to higher local feed costs.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.