USD/CAD traded near 1.3970 in Asian hours on Monday after a bearish gap at the open. OPEC+ kept its December output targets unchanged, and lower crude weighed on the Canadian dollar.
Qatar and Iran continued talks for a third day on ending the war before the US midterm elections.
Steady OPEC+ targets and lower crude reduce energy price support, while de-escalation hopes trim the dollar's safe-haven bid. Markets are also pricing a possible December Fed hike, which supports the dollar over the longer run.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.