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Nutrien meteorologist Matt Reardon expects Australia to see dry weather this spring as a strong El Niño develops, but says conditions will not be as severe as some farmers fear. He points to encouraging signs later in the season.
A more benign outlook for Australian grain areas limits the risk premium on wheat and barley, though dryness through spring still supports some upside.
countrynews.com.auMcPherson Media GroupNov 1, 2026After 224 past neutral weather events, WHEAT moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
