
South Africa's Crop Estimates Committee put the 2025/26 maize crop at a record 17.7 million tonnes in its ninth estimate on October 27, up 1% on September and 6% year on year. Combined with about 2.4 million tonnes of opening stocks, supply comfortably exceeds annual consumption of 12.0 million tonnes, and white and yellow maize prices have eased from above R4,000 per tonne.
A large domestic surplus weighs on South African maize and feed prices and adds to a softer regional feed-grain outlook, though the El Niño dry spell could tighten supply later in the season.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.