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Final polls before Brazil's presidential runoff show Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in a statistical tie, with Datafolha and Quaest results within their margins of error. Investors are pricing elevated political risk, and the EWZ fund has fallen sharply in recent sessions.
A Lula win would likely bring more state spending and a weaker real, while a Bolsonaro win would be read as market-friendly. The currency move would change Brazilian export competitiveness for soybeans, corn and meal.
adalytica.comNov 1, 2026After 92 past neutral macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
