Arabica coffee futures were near $3.11 per pound, down about 1.4%, as rising ICE inventories capped prices. About 28,000 bags of arabica were awaiting grading, the highest in over a month, and robusta stocks reached an 11.5-month high.
Brazil's coffee exports in September rose more than 20% year on year.
Rising exchange stocks and strong Brazilian export flows add supply pressure that limits rallies, even though El Niño concerns provide some support. The balance points to a range-bound market with downside risk.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.