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The Brazilian real, the worst-performing floating EM currency in 2020, has recovered about 10% against the dollar over the last two weeks, returning to 5.3 per dollar from above 5.9. The article notes that the Covid-19 epidemic is accelerating sharply in Brazil and that capital flight and falling oil prices have weighed on the currency.
Dollar weakness and some EM recovery have supported the real's rebound.
The epidemic's spread weighs on Brazilian growth and feed demand, but the stronger real raises the local cost of Brazilian exports, which can marginally support global feed ingredient prices.
exportplanning.comAlba Di Rosa, Marzia Moccia, Marcello AntonioniMay 29, 2020After 244 past bearish events of any kind, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +0.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Describes the real's roughly 10% rebound from above 5.9 to about 5.3 per dollar over two weeks, which matches the -7.5% USD/BRL move, attributing it to dollar weakness and an EM recovery; it is dated after the window but describes the same move.
