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The White House announced a planned deal to import discounted Belarusian potash to lower US fertilizer costs. Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko said Belarus has no surplus potash because all output is already contracted.
With no spare Belarusian supply, the US cannot easily diversify away from Canadian potash, so North American potash prices are unlikely to ease from this route. Trade friction keeps supply tight and prices firm.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.