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Cash barrow and gilt prices have declined sharply since last summer as large hog supplies fill available processing capacity. The IA/MN lean carcass base price was about 15% below late September and nearly 20% below a year earlier.
Lower cash hog prices reduce producer returns and may eventually cut production, but near-term supply stays heavy. Lean hog pricing pressure persists until slaughter capacity and supply balance.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.