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Canada's oat production is forecast to drop 13% to 2.976 million metric tons after delayed harvests across the Prairie Provinces. Saskatchewan had 6% of its crop unharvested as of Nov.
21, and Alberta had 27% unharvested as of Nov. 15.
Lower Canadian oat output and reduced milling quality support higher oat prices for US food and feed buyers. Tight supply could persist if the harvest backlog continues.
After 68 past bullish weather events, Oats moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.