The Walgett district in NSW is expected to produce more than one million tonnes of wheat this season, after three seasons of little or no winter crop. Early yields of up to 5.2 t/ha were reported, and ABARES' September forecast of 28.1 million tonnes is seen as conservative by some traders, who see up to 30 million tonnes nationally.
Larger-than-expected Australian wheat supplies increase competition for export sales and support a softer global wheat price outlook.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.