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Canadian oat acreage is expected to rise in 2017 as relatively favourable cash prices attract producers. Cash oats in Manitoba trade around $3.50-$3.60/bu and in Saskatchewan $3.00-$3.10/bu, versus CBOT March futures near US$2.60.
Expected acreage growth in Canadian oats would add supply and could cap cash prices, while a shift from wheat to oats reflects weaker wheat interest. Persistent cash-futures basis problems may keep buyers relying on cash rather than futures.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.