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USDA economist Kevin Patrick's presentation outlines the 2017 U.S. farm income forecast, with net farm income mixed and debt-to-asset and working capital ratios expected to weaken. Agricultural sector production value is forecast to fall for a third straight year, though at a slower rate.
Farm assets are declining while debt is rising, eroding equity.
Weakening farm finances can slow farmer spending and cut feed purchasing power, while lower output value reflects weak crop prices. The outlook is a background signal rather than a single price catalyst.
doi.orgPatrick, KevinJan 1, 2017After 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 2,447 past report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
