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Oklahoma State extension analyst Derrell Peel expects 2017 cattle prices to average near fourth-quarter 2016 levels but below 2016 annual averages. He flags macro uncertainty, rising interest rates, and volatility in live and feeder cattle futures, and projects about four percent more beef production in 2017.
Expected higher beef output with prices slightly lower year over year points to softer cattle prices and more volatile futures used for hedging.
u.osu.eduSmith atJan 11, 2017After 144 past bearish report events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.1% to +0.9%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 126 past bearish report events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.0%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
