Flooding in Buenos Aires, Córdoba and Santa Fe followed a dry December, forcing evacuations and damaging soybean fields. Exchanges estimate planting area declines of 300,000 to 400,000 hectares, possibly up to 600,000.
Lost Argentine soybean area reduces exportable supply of soy and meal, which supports prices for protein meal used in feed.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.