
DailyFX rates the offshore yuan's fundamental outlook as neutral, noting that the USD/CNH set a higher low while the onshore yuan stayed in a tight range for a third week. The spread between the offshore yuan and the PBOC's guided level is narrowing.
The analysis points to Fed rate expectations and US tax-plan expectations as the main drivers of the offshore pair.
A narrowing offshore-onshore spread suggests stable yuan pricing, so there is little direct effect on feed commodity prices. The main risk is a sudden move in the dollar.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.