
US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the Trump administration will follow the existing Treasury process for judging currency manipulation and is making no judgment on China yet. He noted that China met only one of the three criteria in the Treasury's most recent review.
He also said Trump has so far backed away from labelling China a manipulator.
Avoiding a manipulator label lowers the near-term risk of US retaliation over currency policy. That reduces pressure for a sharp yuan appreciation and leaves the yuan's downside intact.
After 31 past bullish policy events, USDCNY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.3%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.