Cottonseed prices in the Gwydir Valley have jumped to $390/t from mid-2016 levels of $320/t or lower, causing lotfeeders to pause buying. Dryland cotton yield prospects have fallen due to hot weather, with the crop estimate possibly cut from 4.5 to 4 million bales, while China has bought 300,000-400,000t of cottonseed for export this year.
Tighter cottonseed availability and higher ex-gin prices raise feed costs for Australian lotfeeders and support cottonseed meal and feed values. Buyers may need to return to market once new-crop supply is clearer, which could keep prices firm.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.