
Patrick Patton argues that feed prices staying at current levels would require a fifth consecutive record or near-record U.S. corn crop in 2017. He notes 2016 production hit a record 15.2 billion bushels while the November WASDE projected 2016-17 demand at 14.6 billion bushels.
He models 91 million planted acres with yields of 160 to 175 bushels per acre.
A fifth large crop would keep corn supplies ample and cap feed price rises, while any production shortfall or South American problem could quickly push feed costs higher.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.