Rabobank's Q1 2017 Pork Quarterly says the level of Chinese pork imports after Chinese New Year will determine the start of the seasonal rise in the Rabobank 5-nation Hog Price Index. Chinese prices are expected to stay elevated but slightly lower after the holiday, while rising global supply and exchange rates remain key variables.
Stronger Chinese import demand supports hog prices in exporting countries, while rising supply in the US and EU limits gains and adds pressure on pork margins and feed demand.
After 100 past bullish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.