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Lean hog prices rose faster than normal in late January and February on a short-term squeeze in spot pork bellies. Belly prices have since fallen sharply, about 25% below their February peak, and packer margins have narrowed.
The pullback in bellies and packer margins suggests the hog rally is losing momentum, which points to softer hog prices unless retail belly promotions firm up for spring.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.