
The JRC MARS crop monitoring bulletin, published 27 March 2017, reports a promising start to the European season after mild late February and early March temperatures. Winter crops are generally in good shape despite earlier cold in central and eastern Europe.
The bulletin also gives a positive outlook for North Africa, with above-average yields expected in Morocco, and notes frost damage to late-sown barley in Ukraine.
Favourable crop conditions across Europe and North Africa point to adequate supply, which limits upside in wheat and barley prices, though frost damage in Ukraine is a localised risk.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.