Storms and floods in western Argentina may delay the soybean harvest for 2016/17, with only 5.9 percent of planted area harvested so far. Soybean prices had fallen for five straight weeks.
Chinese soybean import forecasts were raised to 86.55 million tonnes.
Harvest delays and higher Chinese import demand could tighten soybean and meal supply and support prices after a weak stretch. The article is a technical commentary, and the upside depends on weather deterioration and USDA revisions.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.