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Nomura analyst Peter Dragicevich argues that AUDUSD's repeated May weakness reflects macro drivers, not seasonality. Those drivers include a narrowing Australia-US two-year swap spread, falling commodity prices and a stronger dollar.
Nomura does not expect the same pattern in 2017 and sees AUDUSD consolidating while underperforming other crosses such as EURAUD, so the near-term price impact is limited.
octaafrica.netMay 3, 2017Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
