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Some oat traders say oat futures reveal little about the current value of the crop. More oats are being grown under contract, which makes cash markets opaque and reduces the futures market's relevance.
If contract growing sidelines cash trade, futures are a weaker price signal for oat buyers, so hedging against futures may track cash values poorly.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.