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North Dakota farmers are reportedly holding 2016 corn in hopes of higher prices. Local cash prices are set by basis relative to futures.
If holders sell, regional cash corn prices could fall, though the effect is largely local and limited in scope.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.