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Nidera's Peter McMeekin says hot, dry weather in June is eroding the benefits of May rainfall in Europe. Strategie Grains cut the EU barley crop to 58 million tonnes, down 1.6 million tonnes month on month.
Spain is the worst-hit country.
A tighter EU barley and soft wheat supply supports feed grain prices and may increase EU demand for imports.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.