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Iowa State climatologist Elwynn Taylor says the current US corn crop still projects about one to two bushels above the trend yield. He warns that a developing low-pressure pattern in the Gulf of Alaska could bring a prolonged dry spell to the Corn Belt.
A yield projection above trend points to ample corn supply, which is bearish, though a possible dry pattern is a upside risk that could offset it.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.