
Indian fertiliser makers say a GST cut on finished fertilizers from 12% to 5% does not reduce the 18% tax on phosphoric acid and ammonia inputs. They warn this will make domestic DAP and NPK production unviable and could lead to a surge in imports.
If domestic output falls, India will rely more on imported DAP, which supports world phosphate demand. The effect on world prices depends on how much import demand actually rises.
After 29 past neutral policy events, DAP moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.3%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.