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Brown Brothers Harriman says the Brazilian real is up 2.7% year to date and near the middle of emerging-market currencies, with neutral fundamentals. USD/BRL has traded mostly in a 3.10-3.35 range since the start of Q2.
A flat real with neutral fundamentals gives little currency-driven pressure on Brazilian agricultural export prices, so feed commodity prices are unlikely to move much on this view alone.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.