
A commodity broker commentary describes record-high belly prices amid record-large pork production this year. Frozen belly stocks were drawn down in the fourth quarter of 2016 for the first time ever and have continued falling slowly.
The author expects a sharp reversal in belly prices once a top is reached, possibly after the August lean hog contract expires.
Tight belly supply supports pork values near term, but a sharp break in belly prices later could pressure lean hog futures and hog-related feed demand.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.